The Risk Alert section of the Risk Alert Tab is designed to quickly analyze an approaching storm's critical risk factors to the user's base location. There are 6 separate factors represented. It is important to note that not all factors should be treated equally. For example, a situation where a location has a 100 recent    chance of getting hit by a tropical storm in the next 5 hours may appear to have more red risk factors than a situation where you have a 40 percent chance of getting hit by a Category 4 storm in the next 24 hours. Obviously, the second situation represents a much higher risk!

The risk factors are...

Wind Probability - This is the probability that the base location will experience a 50 knot (58 mph) wind speed.  The colors equate to the following probability values:
Red-  33+
Orange-  22- 32
Yellow- 11 –21
Green-  0-10 

Wind Probability Tendency- This is the change in wind probability, as defined above, from the prior advisory. The colors equate to the following probability values:
Red-  11+
Orange-  4-10
Yellow- -4 - +4
Green-  <-4

Direction of Movement - If the storm is within 600 nm of the base location, this represents the deviation of the storm's current motion from the compass angle of a direct approach.  For example if a storm is heading at right angles to a direct approach, this value would be 90,  if moving in the opposite direction, this value would be 180.  The colors equate to the following values.

Red-  0 - 22

Yellow-  23- 45

Green-  46+

Maximum Wind Speed Predicted - This represents the maximum wind speed forecast (knots) for the base location.  The colors equate to the following values.

Red-   100+

Orange-  65 - 99

Yellow-  36 - 64

Green-  < 36

Hours until arrival of 34 knot winds - This represents the number of hours before the first 34 knot winds are expected.  The colors equate to the following values.

Red-   0 - 23 hours

Yellow-  24 - 48 hours

Green-  > 48 hours

Hours until arrival of maximum winds - This represents the number of hours before the maximum winds are expected.  The colors equate to the following values.

Red-   0 - 23 hours

Yellow-  24 - 48 hours

Green-  > 48 hours

Forecast Rainfall- This total amount of rain expected at the base location over the next 5 days. The colors equate to the following probability values:
Red-  5.00+”
Orange-  3.00”- 5.00”
Yellow- .76 – 3.00”

Green-  <.75”